Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.0 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $300 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.05 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $300 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$824 (82.8%) on $995 risked, vs $-1,333 (-4.3%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 19.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $300 by Oct 16
+$824
+82.8% on $995 risked
Max Profit
+$801
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$995
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$314.04
+0.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.09 / 1.0 / 20.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | +$381 | +$396 | +$393 | +$374 |
| $266 (-15%) | +$359 | +$404 | +$439 | +$402 |
| $282 (-10%) | +$282 | +$357 | +$460 | +$517 |
| $300 (-4%) โ target | +$112 | +$185 | +$311 | +$905 |
| $307 (-2%) | +$26 | +$85 | +$188 | +$462 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | -$58 | -$14 | +$56 | +$129 |
| $320 (+2%) | -$145 | -$120 | -$88 | -$149 |
| $329 (+5%) | -$276 | -$280 | -$304 | -$466 |
| $345 (+10%) | -$482 | -$524 | -$606 | -$781 |
| $360 (+15%) | -$653 | -$712 | -$802 | -$920 |
| $376 (+20%) | -$780 | -$837 | -$908 | -$972 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.