Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.3 ยท ฮ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$2,070 (144.8%) on $1,430 risked, vs +$3,667 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16
+$2,070
+144.8% on $1,430 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,430
Premium paid
Break-even
$329.30
+5.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.31 / -11.64 / 53.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | -$1,381 | -$1,417 | -$1,430 | -$1,430 |
| $266 (-15%) | -$1,270 | -$1,365 | -$1,422 | -$1,430 |
| $282 (-10%) | -$1,020 | -$1,203 | -$1,368 | -$1,430 |
| $298 (-5%) | -$562 | -$831 | -$1,141 | -$1,430 |
| $307 (-2%) | -$168 | -$473 | -$849 | -$1,430 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | +$146 | -$171 | -$570 | -$1,430 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$501 | +$180 | -$221 | -$970 |
| $329 (+5%) | +$1,105 | +$794 | +$421 | -$30 |
| $345 (+10%) | +$2,277 | +$2,012 | +$1,735 | +$1,536 |
| $350 (+12%) โ target | +$2,716 | +$2,471 | +$2,228 | +$2,070 |
| $360 (+15%) | +$3,610 | +$3,403 | +$3,218 | +$3,103 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$5,049 | +$4,891 | +$4,764 | +$4,670 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.