Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.25 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $275 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$2,675 (201.9%) on $1,325 risked, vs $-3,833 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 16.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $275 by Oct 16
+$2,675
+201.9% on $1,325 risked
Max Profit
+$30,175
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,325
Premium paid
Break-even
$301.75
-3.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.5 / -8.71 / 53.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | +$4,899 | +$4,948 | +$5,020 | +$5,109 |
| $266 (-15%) | +$3,443 | +$3,433 | +$3,460 | +$3,542 |
| $275 (-12%) โ target | +$2,693 | +$2,636 | +$2,612 | +$2,675 |
| $282 (-10%) | +$2,126 | +$2,028 | +$1,948 | +$1,975 |
| $298 (-5%) | +$1,018 | +$833 | +$608 | +$409 |
| $307 (-2%) | +$471 | +$252 | -$39 | -$531 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | +$159 | -$73 | -$387 | -$1,158 |
| $320 (+2%) | -$113 | -$349 | -$665 | -$1,325 |
| $329 (+5%) | -$450 | -$675 | -$963 | -$1,325 |
| $345 (+10%) | -$843 | -$1,023 | -$1,216 | -$1,325 |
| $360 (+15%) | -$1,077 | -$1,199 | -$1,299 | -$1,325 |
| $376 (+20%) | -$1,205 | -$1,278 | -$1,320 | -$1,325 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.