Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $313.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16: the long stock returns +$3,667 (11.7%) on $31,333 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Oct 16.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $350 by Oct 16
+$3,667
+11.7% on $31,333 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$31,333
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$313.33
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 9 | Oct 9 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | -$6,267 | -$6,267 | -$6,267 |
| $266 (-15%) | -$4,700 | -$4,700 | -$4,700 |
| $282 (-10%) | -$3,133 | -$3,133 | -$3,133 |
| $298 (-5%) | -$1,567 | -$1,567 | -$1,567 |
| $307 (-2%) | -$627 | -$627 | -$627 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$627 | +$627 | +$627 |
| $329 (+5%) | +$1,567 | +$1,567 | +$1,567 |
| $345 (+10%) | +$3,133 | +$3,133 | +$3,133 |
| $350 (+12%) โ target | +$3,667 | +$3,667 | +$3,667 |
| $360 (+15%) | +$4,700 | +$4,700 | +$4,700 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$6,267 | +$6,267 | +$6,267 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.