Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $313.33 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $300 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.05 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $345 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$2,462 (7.7%) on $32,038 risked, vs +$3,167 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $345 by Oct 16
+$2,462
+7.7% on $32,038 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,038
Put floors you at $300
Break-even
$320.38
+2.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.93 / -8.35 / 44.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | -$2,162 | -$2,158 | -$2,119 | -$2,038 |
| $266 (-15%) | -$1,941 | -$2,021 | -$2,078 | -$2,038 |
| $282 (-10%) | -$1,512 | -$1,680 | -$1,882 | -$2,038 |
| $298 (-5%) | -$824 | -$1,044 | -$1,340 | -$2,038 |
| $307 (-2%) | -$282 | -$506 | -$802 | -$1,332 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | +$129 | -$86 | -$360 | -$705 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$576 | +$376 | +$137 | -$78 |
| $329 (+5%) | +$1,307 | +$1,138 | +$959 | +$862 |
| $345 (+10%) โ target | +$2,679 | +$2,569 | +$2,482 | +$2,462 |
| $360 (+15%) | +$4,097 | +$4,033 | +$3,999 | +$3,995 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$5,606 | +$5,574 | +$5,562 | +$5,562 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.