Target Price Playground
AAPL
$313.33
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.7% โ LOW
(-43.7% vs 30d avg of 49.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.3 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.25 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $360 by Oct 16: the long straddle returns +$1,745 (63.3%) on $2,755 risked, vs +$4,667 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $31,333. Options give 4.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $360 by Oct 16
+$1,745
+63.3% on $2,755 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,755
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$287.45
-8.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
22%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
3.81 / -20.35 / 106.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Sep 1 | Sep 23 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $251 (-20%) | +$3,519 | +$3,531 | +$3,591 | +$3,679 |
| $266 (-15%) | +$2,173 | +$2,068 | +$2,038 | +$2,112 |
| $282 (-10%) | +$1,107 | +$826 | +$581 | +$545 |
| $298 (-5%) | +$456 | +$2 | -$533 | -$1,021 |
| $307 (-2%) | +$303 | -$221 | -$887 | -$1,961 |
| $313 (0%) โ spot | +$305 | -$244 | -$956 | -$2,588 |
| $320 (+2%) | +$387 | -$169 | -$887 | -$2,295 |
| $329 (+5%) | +$655 | +$119 | -$542 | -$1,355 |
| $345 (+10%) | +$1,434 | +$988 | +$519 | +$211 |
| $360 (+15%) โ target | +$2,508 | +$2,175 | +$1,888 | +$1,745 |
| $376 (+20%) | +$3,844 | +$3,614 | +$3,444 | +$3,345 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.