Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.62 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $300 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.65 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $285 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,703 (213.7%) on $797 risked, vs $-4,159 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 16.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $285 by Sep 18
+$1,703
+213.7% on $797 risked
Max Profit
+$1,703
If the stock โค $300 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$797
Net debit
Break-even
$317.03
-2.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-23.1 / -1.87 / 9.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | +$1,529 | +$1,610 | +$1,683 | +$1,703 |
| $278 (-15%) | +$1,297 | +$1,413 | +$1,581 | +$1,703 |
| $285 (-13%) โ target | +$1,148 | +$1,263 | +$1,457 | +$1,703 |
| $294 (-10%) | +$935 | +$1,030 | +$1,214 | +$1,703 |
| $310 (-5%) | +$496 | +$512 | +$544 | +$677 |
| $320 (-2%) | +$233 | +$196 | +$111 | -$303 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | +$68 | +$1 | -$142 | -$797 |
| $333 (+2%) | -$82 | -$172 | -$349 | -$797 |
| $343 (+5%) | -$278 | -$384 | -$569 | -$797 |
| $359 (+10%) | -$516 | -$615 | -$740 | -$797 |
| $376 (+15%) | -$659 | -$728 | -$787 | -$797 |
| $392 (+20%) | -$735 | -$774 | -$796 | -$797 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.