Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.28 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $355 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.64 ยท ฮ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $365 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,836 (157.7%) on $1,164 risked, vs +$3,841 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 13.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Sep 18
+$1,836
+157.7% on $1,164 risked
Max Profit
+$1,836
If the stock โฅ $355 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,164
Net debit
Break-even
$336.64
+3.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
29.05 / -3.8 / 14.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | -$1,128 | -$1,154 | -$1,164 | -$1,164 |
| $278 (-15%) | -$1,039 | -$1,108 | -$1,158 | -$1,164 |
| $294 (-10%) | -$843 | -$961 | -$1,103 | -$1,164 |
| $310 (-5%) | -$511 | -$641 | -$864 | -$1,164 |
| $320 (-2%) | -$254 | -$358 | -$565 | -$1,164 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | -$66 | -$141 | -$300 | -$1,005 |
| $333 (+2%) | +$129 | +$90 | +$3 | -$352 |
| $343 (+5%) | +$424 | +$444 | +$485 | +$628 |
| $359 (+10%) | +$876 | +$978 | +$1,179 | +$1,836 |
| $365 (+12%) โ target | +$1,015 | +$1,135 | +$1,358 | +$1,836 |
| $376 (+15%) | +$1,236 | +$1,371 | +$1,591 | +$1,836 |
| $392 (+20%) | +$1,487 | +$1,611 | +$1,763 | +$1,836 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.