Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.3 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $310 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.19 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $310 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,018 (125.5%) on $811 risked, vs $-1,659 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 24.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $310 by Sep 18
+$1,018
+125.5% on $811 risked
Max Profit
+$1,001
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$811
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$328.19
+0.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.49 / 1.77 / 18.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | +$575 | +$591 | +$591 | +$579 |
| $278 (-15%) | +$541 | +$587 | +$626 | +$599 |
| $294 (-10%) | +$443 | +$515 | +$624 | +$702 |
| $310 (-5%) โ target | +$273 | +$339 | +$462 | +$1,025 |
| $320 (-2%) | +$138 | +$182 | +$262 | +$398 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | +$44 | +$69 | +$108 | +$76 |
| $333 (+2%) | -$52 | -$47 | -$50 | -$181 |
| $343 (+5%) | -$193 | -$215 | -$272 | -$456 |
| $359 (+10%) | -$401 | -$453 | -$547 | -$695 |
| $376 (+15%) | -$560 | -$618 | -$699 | -$780 |
| $392 (+20%) | -$668 | -$716 | -$769 | -$804 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.