Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.28 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $365 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$2,272 (131.5%) on $1,728 risked, vs +$3,841 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Sep 18
+$2,272
+131.5% on $1,728 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,728
Premium paid
Break-even
$342.28
+4.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.1 / -14.99 / 51.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | -$1,687 | -$1,717 | -$1,728 | -$1,728 |
| $278 (-15%) | -$1,580 | -$1,667 | -$1,722 | -$1,728 |
| $294 (-10%) | -$1,321 | -$1,496 | -$1,665 | -$1,728 |
| $310 (-5%) | -$827 | -$1,087 | -$1,409 | -$1,728 |
| $320 (-2%) | -$396 | -$686 | -$1,068 | -$1,728 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | -$50 | -$348 | -$743 | -$1,569 |
| $333 (+2%) | +$342 | +$45 | -$342 | -$916 |
| $343 (+5%) | +$1,007 | +$728 | +$388 | +$64 |
| $359 (+10%) | +$2,291 | +$2,066 | +$1,836 | +$1,697 |
| $365 (+12%) โ target | +$2,784 | +$2,581 | +$2,385 | +$2,272 |
| $376 (+15%) | +$3,733 | +$3,566 | +$3,421 | +$3,330 |
| $392 (+20%) | +$5,271 | +$5,148 | +$5,044 | +$4,963 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.