Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.62 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $285 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$2,638 (193.7%) on $1,362 risked, vs $-4,159 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 15.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $285 by Sep 18
+$2,638
+193.7% on $1,362 risked
Max Profit
+$31,138
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,362
Premium paid
Break-even
$311.38
-4.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.38 / -11.55 / 51.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | +$4,816 | +$4,862 | +$4,931 | +$5,011 |
| $278 (-15%) | +$3,290 | +$3,279 | +$3,304 | +$3,378 |
| $285 (-13%) โ target | +$2,644 | +$2,595 | +$2,578 | +$2,638 |
| $294 (-10%) | +$1,916 | +$1,817 | +$1,728 | +$1,745 |
| $310 (-5%) | +$777 | +$593 | +$351 | +$112 |
| $320 (-2%) | +$229 | +$15 | -$288 | -$868 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | -$78 | -$301 | -$616 | -$1,362 |
| $333 (+2%) | -$340 | -$561 | -$868 | -$1,362 |
| $343 (+5%) | -$655 | -$858 | -$1,118 | -$1,362 |
| $359 (+10%) | -$1,004 | -$1,152 | -$1,303 | -$1,362 |
| $376 (+15%) | -$1,195 | -$1,286 | -$1,351 | -$1,362 |
| $392 (+20%) | -$1,290 | -$1,337 | -$1,361 | -$1,362 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.