Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $326.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.19 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $360 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,522 (7.5%) on $33,478 risked, vs +$3,341 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $360 by Sep 18
+$2,522
+7.5% on $33,478 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,478
Put floors you at $310
Break-even
$334.78
+2.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.63 / -10.87 / 43.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | -$2,594 | -$2,590 | -$2,551 | -$2,478 |
| $278 (-15%) | -$2,373 | -$2,452 | -$2,512 | -$2,478 |
| $294 (-10%) | -$1,919 | -$2,086 | -$2,300 | -$2,478 |
| $310 (-5%) | -$1,172 | -$1,383 | -$1,684 | -$2,452 |
| $320 (-2%) | -$580 | -$787 | -$1,072 | -$1,472 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | -$130 | -$325 | -$577 | -$819 |
| $333 (+2%) | +$358 | +$182 | -$27 | -$166 |
| $343 (+5%) | +$1,152 | +$1,011 | +$869 | +$814 |
| $360 (+10%) โ target | +$2,668 | +$2,587 | +$2,530 | +$2,522 |
| $376 (+15%) | +$4,142 | +$4,101 | +$4,081 | +$4,080 |
| $392 (+20%) | +$5,737 | +$5,718 | +$5,713 | +$5,713 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.