Target Price Playground
AAPL
$326.59
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.2% โ LOW
(-44.5% vs 30d avg of 49.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.28 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.62 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $375 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$1,910 (61.8%) on $3,090 risked, vs +$4,841 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $32,659. Options give 4.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $375 by Sep 18
+$1,910
+61.8% on $3,090 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,090
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$355.90
+8.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
19%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.72 / -26.55 / 103.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 9 | Aug 29 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $261 (-20%) | +$3,130 | +$3,144 | +$3,204 | +$3,283 |
| $278 (-15%) | +$1,710 | +$1,612 | +$1,583 | +$1,650 |
| $294 (-10%) | +$595 | +$320 | +$62 | +$17 |
| $310 (-5%) | -$51 | -$494 | -$1,058 | -$1,616 |
| $320 (-2%) | -$167 | -$671 | -$1,356 | -$2,596 |
| $327 (0%) โ spot | -$128 | -$648 | -$1,360 | -$2,931 |
| $333 (+2%) | +$2 | -$516 | -$1,209 | -$2,278 |
| $343 (+5%) | +$352 | -$129 | -$730 | -$1,298 |
| $359 (+10%) | +$1,287 | +$914 | +$533 | +$335 |
| $375 (+15%) โ target | +$2,489 | +$2,229 | +$2,013 | +$1,910 |
| $392 (+20%) | +$3,981 | +$3,810 | +$3,684 | +$3,601 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.