Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 44.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.79 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $210 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$974 (103.5%) on $941 risked, vs $-1,364 (-6.1%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 17.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $210 by Sep 18
+$974
+103.5% on $941 risked
Max Profit
+$958
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$923
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$227.51
+1.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.48 / 1.62 / 8.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | +$435 | +$491 | +$552 | +$526 |
| $190 (-15%) | +$376 | +$446 | +$553 | +$613 |
| $201 (-10%) | +$289 | +$362 | +$494 | +$799 |
| $210 (-6%) โ target | +$206 | +$271 | +$396 | +$1,040 |
| $212 (-5%) | +$180 | +$241 | +$360 | +$879 |
| $219 (-2%) | +$106 | +$155 | +$247 | +$483 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | +$55 | +$93 | +$163 | +$254 |
| $228 (+2%) | +$2 | +$29 | +$74 | +$52 |
| $235 (+5%) | -$78 | -$70 | -$64 | -$202 |
| $246 (+10%) | -$211 | -$231 | -$285 | -$511 |
| $257 (+15%) | -$337 | -$381 | -$475 | -$704 |
| $268 (+20%) | -$451 | -$511 | -$624 | -$817 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.