Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.8 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $270 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.0 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $280 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,220 (156.4%) on $780 risked, vs +$2,977 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 13.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $280 by Dec 18
+$1,220
+156.4% on $780 risked
Max Profit
+$1,220
If the stock ≥ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
−$780
Net debit
Break-even
$257.80
+3.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
16.62 / -1.26 / 2.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$682 | -$734 | -$774 | -$780 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$579 | -$657 | -$746 | -$780 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$427 | -$514 | -$653 | -$780 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$230 | -$301 | -$443 | -$780 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$96 | -$145 | -$255 | -$780 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$3 | -$34 | -$109 | -$757 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$91 | +$80 | +$48 | -$257 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$232 | +$252 | +$288 | +$494 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$455 | +$521 | +$651 | +$1,220 |
| $280 (+12%) ← target | +$533 | +$613 | +$765 | +$1,220 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$651 | +$747 | +$918 | +$1,220 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$812 | +$918 | +$1,079 | +$1,220 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.