Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 45.2% โ LOW
(-32.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $223.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $250 by Sep 18: the long stock returns +$2,636 (11.8%) on $22,364 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Sep 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $250 by Sep 18
+$2,636
+11.8% on $22,364 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$22,364
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$223.64
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 11 | Sep 10 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | -$4,473 | -$4,473 | -$4,473 |
| $190 (-15%) | -$3,355 | -$3,355 | -$3,355 |
| $201 (-10%) | -$2,236 | -$2,236 | -$2,236 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$1,118 | -$1,118 | -$1,118 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$447 | -$447 | -$447 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $228 (+2%) | +$447 | +$447 | +$447 |
| $235 (+5%) | +$1,118 | +$1,118 | +$1,118 |
| $246 (+10%) | +$2,236 | +$2,236 | +$2,236 |
| $250 (+12%) โ target | +$2,636 | +$2,636 | +$2,636 |
| $257 (+15%) | +$3,355 | +$3,355 | +$3,355 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$4,473 | +$4,473 | +$4,473 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.