Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 45.2% โ LOW
(-32.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $223.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.79 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $245 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$1,057 (4.5%) on $23,443 risked, vs +$2,136 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $245 by Sep 18
+$1,057
+4.5% on $23,443 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,443
Put floors you at $210
Break-even
$234.43
+4.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.02 / -11.16 / 36.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | -$2,101 | -$2,251 | -$2,405 | -$2,443 |
| $190 (-15%) | -$1,753 | -$1,964 | -$2,228 | -$2,443 |
| $201 (-10%) | -$1,284 | -$1,538 | -$1,886 | -$2,443 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$695 | -$967 | -$1,347 | -$2,197 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$286 | -$558 | -$929 | -$1,526 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | -$259 | -$616 | -$1,079 |
| $228 (+2%) | +$316 | +$58 | -$277 | -$632 |
| $235 (+5%) | +$808 | +$566 | +$271 | +$39 |
| $245 (+10%) โ target | +$1,609 | +$1,400 | +$1,172 | +$1,057 |
| $257 (+15%) | +$2,640 | +$2,474 | +$2,322 | +$2,276 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$3,638 | +$3,510 | +$3,412 | +$3,394 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.