Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 44.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $225 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.65 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.01 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $255 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns $-766 (-20.3%) on $3,766 risked, vs +$3,136 (14.0%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $255 by Sep 18
$-766
-20.3% on $3,766 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,766
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$187.34
-16.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.99 / -26.56 / 77.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | +$1,228 | +$998 | +$830 | +$843 |
| $190 (-15%) | +$564 | +$201 | -$160 | -$275 |
| $201 (-10%) | +$103 | -$386 | -$969 | -$1,394 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$135 | -$720 | -$1,490 | -$2,512 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$168 | -$790 | -$1,632 | -$3,183 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | -$145 | -$783 | -$1,651 | -$3,630 |
| $228 (+2%) | -$88 | -$733 | -$1,610 | -$3,455 |
| $235 (+5%) | +$61 | -$581 | -$1,441 | -$2,784 |
| $246 (+10%) | +$463 | -$144 | -$908 | -$1,666 |
| $255 (+14%) โ target | +$910 | +$352 | -$300 | -$766 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$1,742 | +$1,274 | +$800 | +$571 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.