Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 45.2% โ LOW
(-32.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $225 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.65 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.4 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $250 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$775 (106.9%) on $725 risked, vs +$2,636 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 9.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $250 by Sep 18
+$775
+106.9% on $725 risked
Max Profit
+$775
If the stock โฅ $240 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$725
Net debit
Break-even
$232.25
+3.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.67 / -0.62 / -1.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | -$591 | -$644 | -$705 | -$725 |
| $190 (-15%) | -$505 | -$566 | -$660 | -$725 |
| $201 (-10%) | -$395 | -$452 | -$563 | -$725 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$266 | -$308 | -$402 | -$725 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$184 | -$211 | -$277 | -$725 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | -$128 | -$143 | -$186 | -$725 |
| $228 (+2%) | -$72 | -$75 | -$91 | -$414 |
| $235 (+5%) | +$12 | +$27 | +$52 | +$257 |
| $246 (+10%) | +$146 | +$189 | +$276 | +$775 |
| $250 (+12%) โ target | +$192 | +$243 | +$347 | +$775 |
| $257 (+15%) | +$269 | +$333 | +$458 | +$775 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$375 | +$452 | +$588 | +$775 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.