Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $235 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$834 (4.2%) on $-834 credit (max loss $19,666), vs +$1,136 (5.1%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | -$2,228 | -$2,057 | -$1,864 | -$1,775 |
| $190 (-15%) | -$1,505 | -$1,279 | -$983 | -$657 |
| $201 (-10%) | -$908 | -$649 | -$288 | +$462 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$431 | -$165 | +$201 | +$834 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$199 | +$60 | +$404 | +$834 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | -$64 | +$186 | +$508 | +$834 |
| $228 (+2%) | +$56 | +$295 | +$590 | +$834 |
| $235 (+5%) โ target | +$214 | +$432 | +$682 | +$834 |
| $246 (+10%) | +$409 | +$589 | +$767 | +$834 |
| $257 (+15%) | +$549 | +$690 | +$807 | +$834 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$647 | +$752 | +$824 | +$834 |