Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 45.2% โ LOW
(-32.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $225 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.65 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $250 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$535 (27.2%) on $1,965 risked, vs +$2,636 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $250 by Sep 18
+$535
+27.2% on $1,965 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,965
Premium paid
Break-even
$244.65
+9.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.28 / -14.49 / 38.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | -$1,679 | -$1,824 | -$1,940 | -$1,965 |
| $190 (-15%) | -$1,452 | -$1,663 | -$1,876 | -$1,965 |
| $201 (-10%) | -$1,123 | -$1,397 | -$1,721 | -$1,965 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$682 | -$1,005 | -$1,422 | -$1,965 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$364 | -$705 | -$1,158 | -$1,965 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | -$129 | -$478 | -$944 | -$1,965 |
| $228 (+2%) | +$124 | -$229 | -$700 | -$1,654 |
| $235 (+5%) | +$533 | +$182 | -$280 | -$983 |
| $246 (+10%) | +$1,293 | +$959 | +$546 | +$135 |
| $250 (+12%) โ target | +$1,586 | +$1,262 | +$873 | +$535 |
| $257 (+15%) | +$2,138 | +$1,836 | +$1,493 | +$1,254 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$3,052 | +$2,787 | +$2,518 | +$2,372 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.