Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 45.2% โ LOW
(-32.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.01 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $195 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$1,199 (66.6%) on $1,801 risked, vs $-2,864 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 5.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $195 by Sep 18
+$1,199
+66.6% on $1,801 risked
Max Profit
+$20,699
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,801
Premium paid
Break-even
$206.99
-7.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.28 / -12.07 / 38.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | +$2,906 | +$2,822 | +$2,770 | +$2,808 |
| $190 (-15%) | +$2,016 | +$1,864 | +$1,716 | +$1,690 |
| $195 (-13%) โ target | +$1,656 | +$1,476 | +$1,278 | +$1,199 |
| $201 (-10%) | +$1,226 | +$1,011 | +$752 | +$571 |
| $212 (-5%) | +$548 | +$285 | -$68 | -$547 |
| $219 (-2%) | +$196 | -$85 | -$475 | -$1,218 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | -$17 | -$305 | -$708 | -$1,665 |
| $228 (+2%) | -$211 | -$503 | -$910 | -$1,801 |
| $235 (+5%) | -$472 | -$763 | -$1,161 | -$1,801 |
| $246 (+10%) | -$830 | -$1,104 | -$1,454 | -$1,801 |
| $257 (+15%) | -$1,105 | -$1,347 | -$1,626 | -$1,801 |
| $268 (+20%) | -$1,309 | -$1,513 | -$1,719 | -$1,801 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.