Target Price Playground
ADI
$434.46
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.8% โ LOW
(-47.4% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.98 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $400 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.48 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $380 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$2,150 (159.3%) on $1,350 risked, vs $-5,446 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $43,446. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $380 by Aug 21
+$2,150
+159.3% on $1,350 risked
Max Profit
+$2,150
If the stock โค $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,350
Net debit
Break-even
$421.50
-2.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.29 / 0.35 / 4.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $348 (-20%) | +$1,528 | +$1,681 | +$1,920 | +$2,150 |
| $369 (-15%) | +$1,234 | +$1,366 | +$1,615 | +$2,150 |
| $380 (-13%) โ target | +$1,073 | +$1,181 | +$1,402 | +$2,150 |
| $391 (-10%) | +$900 | +$978 | +$1,146 | +$2,150 |
| $413 (-5%) | +$549 | +$554 | +$573 | +$876 |
| $426 (-2%) | +$341 | +$301 | +$221 | -$427 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | +$206 | +$137 | -$3 | -$1,296 |
| $443 (+2%) | +$76 | -$20 | -$212 | -$1,350 |
| $456 (+5%) | -$110 | -$240 | -$491 | -$1,350 |
| $478 (+10%) | -$388 | -$555 | -$850 | -$1,350 |
| $500 (+15%) | -$621 | -$803 | -$1,083 | -$1,350 |
| $521 (+20%) | -$809 | -$986 | -$1,218 | -$1,350 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.