Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.6% โ LOW
(-61.0% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $400 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.03 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $415 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,863 (163.9%) on $1,137 risked, vs +$4,476 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 13.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $415 by Oct 16
+$1,863
+163.9% on $1,137 risked
Max Profit
+$1,863
If the stock โฅ $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,137
Net debit
Break-even
$381.37
+3.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.71 / -2.9 / 4.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$990 | -$1,066 | -$1,128 | -$1,137 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$837 | -$949 | -$1,085 | -$1,137 |
| $333 (-10%) | -$609 | -$735 | -$944 | -$1,137 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$312 | -$416 | -$630 | -$1,137 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$111 | -$184 | -$350 | -$1,137 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | +$28 | -$18 | -$133 | -$1,113 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$170 | +$152 | +$100 | -$373 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$382 | +$408 | +$457 | +$738 |
| $407 (+10%) | +$716 | +$809 | +$1,000 | +$1,863 |
| $415 (+12%) โ target | +$845 | +$959 | +$1,187 | +$1,863 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$1,010 | +$1,146 | +$1,400 | +$1,863 |
| $444 (+20%) | +$1,251 | +$1,402 | +$1,644 | +$1,863 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.