Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.8% โ LOW
(-47.4% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.09 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $465 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.32 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $480 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,123 (154.2%) on $1,377 risked, vs +$5,068 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 13.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $480 by Aug 21
+$2,123
+154.2% on $1,377 risked
Max Profit
+$2,123
If the stock โฅ $465 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,377
Net debit
Break-even
$443.77
+3.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.79 / -1.14 / 1.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$1,053 | -$1,178 | -$1,322 | -$1,377 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$853 | -$996 | -$1,211 | -$1,377 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$602 | -$736 | -$983 | -$1,377 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$312 | -$409 | -$616 | -$1,377 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$126 | -$189 | -$337 | -$1,377 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$37 | -$134 | -$1,377 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$127 | +$118 | +$78 | -$586 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$317 | +$349 | +$399 | +$702 |
| $472 (+10%) | +$620 | +$717 | +$903 | +$2,123 |
| $480 (+12%) โ target | +$725 | +$842 | +$1,066 | +$2,123 |
| $494 (+15%) | +$900 | +$1,047 | +$1,322 | +$2,123 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$1,146 | +$1,325 | +$1,632 | +$2,123 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.