Target Price Playground
ADI
$434.46
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.8% โ LOW
(-47.4% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $485 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $435 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $36.86 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $470 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.67 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $485 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,081 (146.7%) on $1,419 risked, vs +$5,054 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $43,446. Options give 12.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $485. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $485 by Aug 21
+$2,081
+146.7% on $1,419 risked
Max Profit
+$2,081
If the stock โฅ $470 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,419
Net debit
Break-even
$449.19
+3.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.0 / -1.16 / 6.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $348 (-20%) | -$1,106 | -$1,230 | -$1,369 | -$1,419 |
| $369 (-15%) | -$906 | -$1,050 | -$1,262 | -$1,419 |
| $391 (-10%) | -$653 | -$788 | -$1,036 | -$1,419 |
| $413 (-5%) | -$357 | -$455 | -$665 | -$1,419 |
| $426 (-2%) | -$168 | -$231 | -$381 | -$1,419 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | -$38 | -$76 | -$174 | -$1,419 |
| $443 (+2%) | +$91 | +$82 | +$42 | -$604 |
| $456 (+5%) | +$285 | +$318 | +$370 | +$699 |
| $478 (+10%) | +$595 | +$694 | +$883 | +$2,081 |
| $485 (+12%) โ target | +$691 | +$808 | +$1,033 | +$2,081 |
| $500 (+15%) | +$879 | +$1,028 | +$1,306 | +$2,081 |
| $521 (+20%) | +$1,128 | +$1,308 | +$1,614 | +$2,081 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.