Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.5% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $429.32 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $465 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.32 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $465 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$5,900 (14.5%) on $40,600 risked, vs +$3,568 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $465 by Aug 21
+$5,900
+14.5% on $40,600 risked
Max Profit
+$5,900
If the stock โฅ $465 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$40,600
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$406.00
-5.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.42 / 29.13 / -69.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$6,554 | -$6,369 | -$6,266 | -$6,254 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$4,675 | -$4,378 | -$4,157 | -$4,108 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$2,939 | -$2,513 | -$2,119 | -$1,961 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$1,375 | -$822 | -$223 | +$185 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$527 | +$93 | +$812 | +$1,473 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$658 | +$1,448 | +$2,332 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$494 | +$1,185 | +$2,038 | +$3,191 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$1,176 | +$1,905 | +$2,827 | +$4,479 |
| $465 (+8%) โ target | +$1,848 | +$2,600 | +$3,561 | +$5,900 |
| $472 (+10%) | +$2,159 | +$2,916 | +$3,881 | +$5,900 |
| $494 (+15%) | +$2,961 | +$3,707 | +$4,629 | +$5,900 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$3,601 | +$4,304 | +$5,121 | +$5,900 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.