Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.5% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $430 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $48.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $410 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.77 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $410 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$972 (40.6%) on $2,393 risked, vs $-1,932 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 9.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $410 by Aug 21
+$972
+40.6% on $2,393 risked
Max Profit
+$972
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$2,318
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$428.13
-0.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.67 / 1.78 / 17.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$430 | -$355 | -$294 | -$416 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$463 | -$351 | -$201 | -$207 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$537 | -$406 | -$186 | +$203 |
| $410 (-5%) โ target | -$667 | -$541 | -$309 | +$967 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$739 | -$625 | -$416 | +$364 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | -$803 | -$702 | -$520 | -$62 |
| $438 (+2%) | -$870 | -$785 | -$637 | -$439 |
| $451 (+5%) | -$975 | -$918 | -$831 | -$916 |
| $472 (+10%) | -$1,159 | -$1,150 | -$1,168 | -$1,504 |
| $494 (+15%) | -$1,342 | -$1,380 | -$1,484 | -$1,884 |
| $515 (+20%) | -$1,516 | -$1,590 | -$1,748 | -$2,114 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.