Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.5% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.09 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $480 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$1,291 (34.8%) on $3,709 risked, vs +$5,068 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $480 by Aug 21
+$1,291
+34.8% on $3,709 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,709
Premium paid
Break-even
$467.09
+8.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.37 / -30.27 / 71.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$3,085 | -$3,395 | -$3,643 | -$3,709 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$2,618 | -$3,058 | -$3,494 | -$3,709 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$1,957 | -$2,517 | -$3,157 | -$3,709 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$1,085 | -$1,734 | -$2,540 | -$3,709 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$459 | -$1,141 | -$2,008 | -$3,709 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$695 | -$1,582 | -$3,709 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$492 | -$209 | -$1,101 | -$2,918 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$1,287 | +$591 | -$281 | -$1,630 |
| $472 (+10%) | +$2,755 | +$2,094 | +$1,315 | +$516 |
| $480 (+12%) โ target | +$3,324 | +$2,684 | +$1,950 | +$1,291 |
| $494 (+15%) | +$4,379 | +$3,780 | +$3,133 | +$2,663 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$6,131 | +$5,608 | +$5,097 | +$4,809 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.