Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.5% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.39 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $380 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$1,561 (45.4%) on $3,439 risked, vs $-4,932 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 3.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $380 by Aug 21
+$1,561
+45.4% on $3,439 risked
Max Profit
+$39,561
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,439
Premium paid
Break-even
$395.61
-7.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.63 / -25.01 / 71.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | +$5,501 | +$5,302 | +$5,165 | +$5,215 |
| $365 (-15%) | +$3,822 | +$3,492 | +$3,168 | +$3,069 |
| $380 (-11%) โ target | +$2,757 | +$2,341 | +$1,870 | +$1,561 |
| $386 (-10%) | +$2,336 | +$1,887 | +$1,357 | +$922 |
| $408 (-5%) | +$1,062 | +$524 | -$171 | -$1,224 |
| $421 (-2%) | +$400 | -$171 | -$927 | -$2,512 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$584 | -$1,360 | -$3,371 |
| $438 (+2%) | -$367 | -$957 | -$1,738 | -$3,439 |
| $451 (+5%) | -$860 | -$1,446 | -$2,206 | -$3,439 |
| $472 (+10%) | -$1,538 | -$2,088 | -$2,757 | -$3,439 |
| $494 (+15%) | -$2,061 | -$2,549 | -$3,086 | -$3,439 |
| $515 (+20%) | -$2,455 | -$2,868 | -$3,267 | -$3,439 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.