Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.8% โ LOW
(-47.4% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $429.32 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $480 by Aug 21: the long stock returns +$5,068 (11.8%) on $42,932 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Aug 21.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $480 by Aug 21
+$5,068
+11.8% on $42,932 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$42,932
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$429.32
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 18 | Aug 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$8,586 | -$8,586 | -$8,586 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$6,440 | -$6,440 | -$6,440 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$4,293 | -$4,293 | -$4,293 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$2,147 | -$2,147 | -$2,147 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$859 | -$859 | -$859 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$859 | +$859 | +$859 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$2,147 | +$2,147 | +$2,147 |
| $472 (+10%) | +$4,293 | +$4,293 | +$4,293 |
| $480 (+12%) โ target | +$5,068 | +$5,068 | +$5,068 |
| $494 (+15%) | +$6,440 | +$6,440 | +$6,440 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$8,586 | +$8,586 | +$8,586 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.