Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.5% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $429.32 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.77 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $470 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$1,591 (3.5%) on $45,409 risked, vs +$4,068 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $470 by Aug 21
+$1,591
+3.5% on $45,409 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,409
Put floors you at $410
Break-even
$454.09
+5.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.14 / -24.07 / 67.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$3,804 | -$4,091 | -$4,358 | -$4,409 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$3,182 | -$3,593 | -$4,066 | -$4,409 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$2,341 | -$2,846 | -$3,494 | -$4,409 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$1,277 | -$1,832 | -$2,570 | -$4,409 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$535 | -$1,098 | -$1,841 | -$3,336 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$559 | -$1,285 | -$2,477 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$566 | +$18 | -$680 | -$1,618 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$1,468 | +$945 | +$311 | -$330 |
| $470 (+9%) โ target | +$2,921 | +$2,453 | +$1,937 | +$1,591 |
| $494 (+15%) | +$4,863 | +$4,478 | +$4,113 | +$3,963 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$6,731 | +$6,424 | +$6,175 | +$6,109 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.