Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.32
๐ข
ADI IV: 46.5% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 89.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $495 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.09 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.39 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $495 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns $-649 (-9.1%) on $7,149 risked, vs +$6,568 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $42,932. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $495. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $495 by Aug 21
$-649
-9.1% on $7,149 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$7,149
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$358.51
-16.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.73 / -55.28 / 142.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | +$2,416 | +$1,907 | +$1,522 | +$1,506 |
| $365 (-15%) | +$1,203 | +$434 | -$326 | -$640 |
| $386 (-10%) | +$379 | -$630 | -$1,800 | -$2,787 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$22 | -$1,209 | -$2,711 | -$4,933 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$59 | -$1,312 | -$2,935 | -$6,221 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$1,278 | -$2,942 | -$7,080 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$125 | -$1,166 | -$2,839 | -$6,357 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$427 | -$855 | -$2,487 | -$5,069 |
| $472 (+10%) | +$1,217 | +$6 | -$1,442 | -$2,923 |
| $495 (+15%) โ target | +$2,392 | +$1,314 | +$147 | -$648 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$3,676 | +$2,740 | +$1,831 | +$1,370 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.