Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-53.2% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.8 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $225 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.83 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $215 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$803 (115.1%) on $697 risked, vs $-2,692 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $215 by Sep 18
+$803
+115.1% on $697 risked
Max Profit
+$803
If the stock โค $225 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$697
Net debit
Break-even
$233.03
-3.68% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.32 / -2.28 / 8.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$672 | +$728 | +$786 | +$803 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$533 | +$604 | +$715 | +$803 |
| $215 (-11%) โ target | +$382 | +$445 | +$565 | +$803 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$333 | +$389 | +$502 | +$803 |
| $230 (-5%) | +$98 | +$111 | +$139 | +$321 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$43 | -$60 | -$100 | -$405 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$132 | -$167 | -$244 | -$697 |
| $247 (+2%) | -$216 | -$265 | -$368 | -$697 |
| $254 (+5%) | -$328 | -$391 | -$509 | -$697 |
| $266 (+10%) | -$475 | -$541 | -$637 | -$697 |
| $278 (+15%) | -$572 | -$626 | -$682 | -$697 |
| $290 (+20%) | -$632 | -$668 | -$694 | -$697 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.