Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $255 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$483 (2.2%) on $-483 credit (max loss $22,017), vs +$1,308 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$2,658 | -$2,623 | -$2,614 | -$2,663 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$1,707 | -$1,602 | -$1,488 | -$1,454 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$940 | -$781 | -$562 | -$244 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$377 | -$202 | +$42 | +$483 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$130 | +$35 | +$250 | +$483 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$153 | +$339 | +$483 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$108 | +$244 | +$397 | +$483 |
| $255 (+5%) โ target | +$244 | +$351 | +$451 | +$483 |
| $266 (+10%) | +$359 | +$428 | +$476 | +$483 |
| $278 (+15%) | +$426 | +$464 | +$482 | +$483 |
| $290 (+20%) | +$458 | +$477 | +$483 | +$483 |