Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-53.2% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.37 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $230 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.33 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $230 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$813 (161.2%) on $504 risked, vs $-1,192 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 32.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $230 by Sep 18
+$813
+161.2% on $504 risked
Max Profit
+$788
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$504
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$246.03
+1.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.21 / 3.0 / 8.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$416 | +$432 | +$433 | +$416 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$392 | +$429 | +$464 | +$438 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$331 | +$383 | +$466 | +$534 |
| $230 (-5%) โ target | +$226 | +$273 | +$363 | +$814 |
| $237 (-2%) | +$150 | +$185 | +$249 | +$391 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$94 | +$117 | +$156 | +$160 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$37 | +$47 | +$57 | -$25 |
| $254 (+5%) | -$49 | -$57 | -$86 | -$226 |
| $266 (+10%) | -$181 | -$213 | -$278 | -$407 |
| $278 (+15%) | -$288 | -$330 | -$397 | -$476 |
| $290 (+20%) | -$368 | -$408 | -$458 | -$497 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.