Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-55.9% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $270 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$1,660 (123.9%) on $1,340 risked, vs +$2,808 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $270 by Sep 18
+$1,660
+123.9% on $1,340 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,340
Premium paid
Break-even
$253.40
+4.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.88 / -9.31 / 41.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$1,276 | -$1,319 | -$1,339 | -$1,340 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$1,157 | -$1,255 | -$1,327 | -$1,340 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$914 | -$1,081 | -$1,255 | -$1,340 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$503 | -$729 | -$1,014 | -$1,340 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$164 | -$410 | -$734 | -$1,340 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | +$99 | -$152 | -$483 | -$1,148 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$393 | +$143 | -$181 | -$664 |
| $254 (+5%) | +$883 | +$646 | +$354 | +$62 |
| $266 (+10%) | +$1,818 | +$1,618 | +$1,406 | +$1,271 |
| $270 (+12%) โ target | +$2,144 | +$1,958 | +$1,771 | +$1,660 |
| $278 (+15%) | +$2,863 | +$2,707 | +$2,565 | +$2,481 |
| $290 (+20%) | +$3,981 | +$3,861 | +$3,761 | +$3,690 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.