Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-55.9% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $241.92 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.33 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $265 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$1,575 (6.3%) on $24,925 risked, vs +$2,308 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $265 by Sep 18
+$1,575
+6.3% on $24,925 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,925
Put floors you at $230
Break-even
$249.25
+3.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.36 / -9.13 / 40.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$1,987 | -$2,000 | -$1,984 | -$1,925 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$1,784 | -$1,865 | -$1,937 | -$1,925 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$1,415 | -$1,560 | -$1,748 | -$1,925 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$851 | -$1,029 | -$1,280 | -$1,925 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$418 | -$595 | -$839 | -$1,217 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$93 | -$263 | -$486 | -$733 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$257 | +$101 | -$94 | -$249 |
| $254 (+5%) | +$827 | +$694 | +$549 | +$477 |
| $265 (+10%) โ target | +$1,766 | +$1,673 | +$1,594 | +$1,575 |
| $278 (+15%) | +$2,982 | +$2,930 | +$2,899 | +$2,896 |
| $290 (+20%) | +$4,144 | +$4,117 | +$4,105 | +$4,105 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.