Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-53.2% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.8 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $280 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$1,480 (58.7%) on $2,520 risked, vs +$3,808 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 3.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $280 by Sep 18
+$1,480
+58.7% on $2,520 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,520
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$265.20
+9.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
22%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.11 / -17.99 / 82.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$2,053 | +$2,032 | +$2,060 | +$2,126 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$1,082 | +$952 | +$876 | +$917 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$358 | +$88 | -$192 | -$293 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$28 | -$416 | -$917 | -$1,502 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$77 | -$505 | -$1,084 | -$2,228 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$34 | -$471 | -$1,066 | -$2,328 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$69 | -$366 | -$947 | -$1,844 |
| $254 (+5%) | +$325 | -$86 | -$602 | -$1,118 |
| $266 (+10%) | +$984 | +$649 | +$293 | +$91 |
| $280 (+16%) โ target | +$2,009 | +$1,774 | +$1,573 | +$1,480 |
| $290 (+20%) | +$2,891 | +$2,716 | +$2,584 | +$2,510 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.