Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-53.2% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $260 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.4 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $270 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,200 (150.0%) on $800 risked, vs +$2,808 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $270 by Sep 18
+$1,200
+150.0% on $800 risked
Max Profit
+$1,200
If the stock โฅ $260 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$800
Net debit
Break-even
$248.00
+2.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.78 / -1.6 / 3.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$749 | -$782 | -$799 | -$800 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$665 | -$728 | -$787 | -$800 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$510 | -$597 | -$721 | -$800 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$282 | -$363 | -$515 | -$800 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$118 | -$177 | -$300 | -$800 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$3 | -$40 | -$124 | -$608 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$115 | +$101 | +$68 | -$124 |
| $254 (+5%) | +$290 | +$313 | +$360 | +$602 |
| $266 (+10%) | +$557 | +$629 | +$771 | +$1,200 |
| $270 (+12%) โ target | +$633 | +$715 | +$870 | +$1,200 |
| $278 (+15%) | +$774 | +$867 | +$1,023 | +$1,200 |
| $290 (+20%) | +$933 | +$1,022 | +$1,138 | +$1,200 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.