Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-53.2% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.8 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $215 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$1,320 (111.9%) on $1,180 risked, vs $-2,692 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 10.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $215 by Sep 18
+$1,320
+111.9% on $1,180 risked
Max Profit
+$22,820
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,180
Premium paid
Break-even
$228.20
-5.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.77 / -8.69 / 41.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | +$3,329 | +$3,351 | +$3,399 | +$3,466 |
| $206 (-15%) | +$2,239 | +$2,207 | +$2,202 | +$2,257 |
| $215 (-11%) โ target | +$1,477 | +$1,390 | +$1,310 | +$1,320 |
| $218 (-10%) | +$1,272 | +$1,170 | +$1,064 | +$1,047 |
| $230 (-5%) | +$475 | +$313 | +$96 | -$162 |
| $237 (-2%) | +$87 | -$94 | -$350 | -$888 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$133 | -$319 | -$583 | -$1,180 |
| $247 (+2%) | -$324 | -$509 | -$765 | -$1,180 |
| $254 (+5%) | -$559 | -$732 | -$956 | -$1,180 |
| $266 (+10%) | -$834 | -$969 | -$1,113 | -$1,180 |
| $278 (+15%) | -$998 | -$1,090 | -$1,164 | -$1,180 |
| $290 (+20%) | -$1,090 | -$1,145 | -$1,177 | -$1,180 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.