Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 68.2% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 92.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $540 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
63d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $620 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $77.0 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $570 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $48.78 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $540 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$2,178 (77.2%) on $2,822 risked, vs $-7,711 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 6.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (63 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $540 by Aug 21
+$2,178
+77.2% on $2,822 risked
Max Profit
+$2,178
If the stock โค $570 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,822
Net debit
Break-even
$591.78
-4.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 63d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.23 / -5.98 / 4.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 10 | Jul 31 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | +$1,020 | +$1,199 | +$1,550 | +$2,178 |
| $525 (-15%) | +$690 | +$821 | +$1,114 | +$2,178 |
| $540 (-12%) โ target | +$517 | +$617 | +$854 | +$2,178 |
| $555 (-10%) | +$343 | +$406 | +$573 | +$2,178 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$8 | -$23 | -$24 | +$553 |
| $605 (-2%) | -$216 | -$278 | -$385 | -$1,299 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | -$352 | -$445 | -$619 | -$2,533 |
| $629 (+2%) | -$485 | -$607 | -$844 | -$2,822 |
| $648 (+5%) | -$679 | -$842 | -$1,162 | -$2,822 |
| $679 (+10%) | -$982 | -$1,202 | -$1,622 | -$2,822 |
| $710 (+15%) | -$1,257 | -$1,518 | -$1,987 | -$2,822 |
| $741 (+20%) | -$1,503 | -$1,787 | -$2,261 | -$2,822 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.