Target Price Playground
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $56.82 · Δ 0.57
SHORT CALL · $570 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $40.67 · Δ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $590 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$2,385 (147.7%) on $1,615 risked, vs +$5,973 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 13.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $590 by Dec 18
+$2,385
+147.7% on $1,615 risked
Max Profit
+$2,385
If the stock ≥ $570 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,615
Net debit
Break-even
$546.15
+2.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
11.18 / -0.27 / -0.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $424 (-20%) | -$1,072 | -$1,230 | -$1,464 | -$1,615 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$843 | -$998 | -$1,276 | -$1,615 |
| $477 (-10%) | -$581 | -$708 | -$976 | -$1,615 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$296 | -$374 | -$568 | -$1,615 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$119 | -$161 | -$283 | -$1,615 |
| $530 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$17 | -$84 | -$1,588 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$118 | +$128 | +$120 | -$527 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$294 | +$344 | +$424 | +$1,063 |
| $583 (+10%) | +$577 | +$690 | +$905 | +$2,385 |
| $590 (+11%) ← target | +$645 | +$773 | +$1,018 | +$2,385 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$841 | +$1,006 | +$1,321 | +$2,385 |
| $636 (+20%) | +$1,081 | +$1,285 | +$1,654 | +$2,385 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.