Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 67.8% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 90.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $690 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $620 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $75.7 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $670 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $58.96 ยท ฮ 0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $690 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$3,326 (198.7%) on $1,674 risked, vs +$7,289 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 16.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $690. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $690 by Aug 21
+$3,326
+198.7% on $1,674 risked
Max Profit
+$3,326
If the stock โฅ $670 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,674
Net debit
Break-even
$636.74
+3.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.78 / -0.93 / -4.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | -$909 | -$1,094 | -$1,397 | -$1,674 |
| $525 (-15%) | -$645 | -$816 | -$1,145 | -$1,674 |
| $555 (-10%) | -$351 | -$487 | -$785 | -$1,674 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$40 | -$121 | -$329 | -$1,674 |
| $605 (-2%) | +$152 | +$110 | -$22 | -$1,674 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | +$280 | +$266 | +$191 | -$1,674 |
| $629 (+2%) | +$408 | +$422 | +$407 | -$729 |
| $648 (+5%) | +$598 | +$655 | +$733 | +$1,123 |
| $679 (+10%) | +$907 | +$1,032 | +$1,257 | +$3,326 |
| $690 (+12%) โ target | +$1,016 | +$1,163 | +$1,435 | +$3,326 |
| $710 (+15%) | +$1,200 | +$1,385 | +$1,730 | +$3,326 |
| $741 (+20%) | +$1,473 | +$1,706 | +$2,133 | +$3,326 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.