Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 68.4% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 92.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $690 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
63d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $620 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $79.0 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $690 by Aug 21: the long call returns $-900 (-11.4%) on $7,900 risked, vs +$7,289 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (63 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $690. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $690 by Aug 21
$-900
-11.4% on $7,900 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$7,900
Premium paid
Break-even
$699.00
+13.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 63d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.78 / -64.03 / 100.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 10 | Jul 31 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | -$5,797 | -$6,651 | -$7,503 | -$7,900 |
| $525 (-15%) | -$4,844 | -$5,886 | -$7,056 | -$7,900 |
| $555 (-10%) | -$3,663 | -$4,863 | -$6,323 | -$7,900 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$2,255 | -$3,570 | -$5,246 | -$7,900 |
| $605 (-2%) | -$1,302 | -$2,664 | -$4,422 | -$7,900 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | -$625 | -$2,008 | -$3,799 | -$7,900 |
| $629 (+2%) | +$85 | -$1,311 | -$3,117 | -$6,955 |
| $648 (+5%) | +$1,211 | -$191 | -$1,991 | -$5,103 |
| $679 (+10%) | +$3,237 | +$1,856 | +$140 | -$2,018 |
| $690 (+12%) โ target | +$4,014 | +$2,651 | +$982 | -$900 |
| $710 (+15%) | +$5,433 | +$4,109 | +$2,541 | +$1,068 |
| $741 (+20%) | +$7,778 | +$6,535 | +$5,153 | +$4,153 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.