Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 68.4% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 92.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $540 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
63d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $620 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $77.0 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $540 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$300 (3.9%) on $7,700 risked, vs $-7,711 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (63 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $540 by Aug 21
+$300
+3.9% on $7,700 risked
Max Profit
+$54,300
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$7,700
Premium paid
Break-even
$543.00
-12.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 63d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.32 / -59.73 / 101.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 10 | Jul 31 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | +$6,554 | +$5,860 | +$5,168 | +$4,931 |
| $525 (-15%) | +$4,422 | +$3,540 | +$2,529 | +$1,846 |
| $540 (-12%) โ target | +$3,439 | +$2,473 | +$1,310 | +$300 |
| $555 (-10%) | +$2,517 | +$1,477 | +$176 | -$1,240 |
| $586 (-5%) | +$841 | -$315 | -$1,831 | -$4,325 |
| $605 (-2%) | -$59 | -$1,262 | -$2,859 | -$6,177 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | -$616 | -$1,839 | -$3,470 | -$7,411 |
| $629 (+2%) | -$1,139 | -$2,376 | -$4,023 | -$7,700 |
| $648 (+5%) | -$1,865 | -$3,109 | -$4,748 | -$7,700 |
| $679 (+10%) | -$2,925 | -$4,146 | -$5,702 | -$7,700 |
| $710 (+15%) | -$3,815 | -$4,979 | -$6,387 | -$7,700 |
| $741 (+20%) | -$4,555 | -$5,638 | -$6,860 | -$7,700 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.