Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 68.4% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 92.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $680 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
63d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $617.11 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $590 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $59.45 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $680 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$344 (0.5%) on $67,656 risked, vs +$6,289 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $61,711.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (63 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $680. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $680 by Aug 21
+$344
+0.5% on $67,656 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$8,656
Put floors you at $590
Break-even
$676.56
+9.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 63d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.79 / -56.04 / 98.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 10 | Jul 31 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | -$6,390 | -$7,198 | -$8,103 | -$8,656 |
| $525 (-15%) | -$5,246 | -$6,218 | -$7,421 | -$8,656 |
| $555 (-10%) | -$3,862 | -$4,954 | -$6,383 | -$8,656 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$2,246 | -$3,409 | -$4,958 | -$8,656 |
| $605 (-2%) | -$1,170 | -$2,350 | -$3,919 | -$7,179 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | -$411 | -$1,594 | -$3,153 | -$5,945 |
| $629 (+2%) | +$380 | -$799 | -$2,334 | -$4,711 |
| $648 (+5%) | +$1,623 | +$464 | -$1,010 | -$2,859 |
| $680 (+10%) โ target | +$3,921 | +$2,823 | +$1,510 | +$344 |
| $710 (+15%) | +$6,198 | +$5,183 | +$4,051 | +$3,312 |
| $741 (+20%) | +$8,695 | +$7,779 | +$6,845 | +$6,397 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.