Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 68.1% โ LOW
(-26.1% vs 30d avg of 92.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $670 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $617.11 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $670 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $61.5 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $670 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$11,439 (20.6%) on $55,561 risked, vs +$5,289 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $670. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $670 by Aug 21
+$11,439
+20.6% on $55,561 risked
Max Profit
+$11,439
If the stock โฅ $670 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$55,561
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$555.61
-9.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.15 / 63.07 / -105.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | -$7,585 | -$6,914 | -$6,356 | -$6,192 |
| $525 (-15%) | -$5,197 | -$4,329 | -$3,488 | -$3,107 |
| $555 (-10%) | -$3,006 | -$1,948 | -$797 | -$21 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$1,023 | +$203 | +$1,649 | +$3,064 |
| $605 (-2%) | +$66 | +$1,377 | +$2,978 | +$4,916 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | +$750 | +$2,109 | +$3,800 | +$6,150 |
| $629 (+2%) | +$1,402 | +$2,802 | +$4,569 | +$7,384 |
| $648 (+5%) | +$2,318 | +$3,768 | +$5,622 | +$9,236 |
| $670 (+9%) โ target | +$3,315 | +$4,804 | +$6,718 | +$11,439 |
| $679 (+10%) | +$3,688 | +$5,185 | +$7,110 | +$11,439 |
| $710 (+15%) | +$4,874 | +$6,377 | +$8,282 | +$11,439 |
| $741 (+20%) | +$5,890 | +$7,364 | +$9,174 | +$11,439 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.