Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
AMAT
$617.11
๐ŸŸข
AMAT IV: 68.4% โ€” LOW (-25.9% vs 30d avg of 92.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $590 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

63d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $620 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $88.3 ยท ฮ” -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $590 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $59.45 ยท ฮ” -0.37
P&L at Expiry Now $617 Target $590 $432 $617 $802
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If AMAT hits $590 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$3,660 (126.9%) on $2,885 risked, vs $-2,711 (-4.4%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 28.8ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (63 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if AMAT hits $590 by Aug 21
+$3,660
+126.9% on $2,885 risked
Max Profit
+$3,630
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$2,140
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$678.93
+10.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 63d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-4.85 / 7.62 / 22.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

AMAT Price Today Jul 10 Jul 31 Aug 21 (exp)
$494 (-20%) +$321 +$501 +$727 +$572
$525 (-15%) +$296 +$522 +$882 +$1,148
$555 (-10%) +$229 +$479 +$928 +$2,004
$590 (-4%) โ† target +$107 +$354 +$821 +$3,339
$605 (-2%) +$41 +$277 +$724 +$2,556
$617 (0%) โ† spot -$19 +$204 +$623 +$1,959
$629 (+2%) -$84 +$123 +$505 +$1,411
$648 (+5%) -$188 -$10 +$302 +$680
$679 (+10%) -$377 -$257 -$83 -$315
$710 (+15%) -$578 -$521 -$492 -$1,069
$741 (+20%) -$783 -$790 -$894 -$1,625
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.