Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 67.8% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 90.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $690 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $620 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $75.7 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $690 by Aug 21: the long call returns $-570 (-7.5%) on $7,570 risked, vs +$7,289 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $690. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $690 by Aug 21
$-570
-7.5% on $7,570 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$7,570
Premium paid
Break-even
$695.70
+12.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.79 / -63.79 / 100.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | -$5,404 | -$6,263 | -$7,127 | -$7,570 |
| $525 (-15%) | -$4,440 | -$5,483 | -$6,656 | -$7,570 |
| $555 (-10%) | -$3,249 | -$4,447 | -$5,899 | -$7,570 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$1,834 | -$3,144 | -$4,804 | -$7,570 |
| $605 (-2%) | -$879 | -$2,235 | -$3,973 | -$7,570 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | -$201 | -$1,577 | -$3,347 | -$7,570 |
| $629 (+2%) | +$510 | -$879 | -$2,665 | -$6,625 |
| $648 (+5%) | +$1,637 | +$241 | -$1,539 | -$4,773 |
| $679 (+10%) | +$3,661 | +$2,286 | +$582 | -$1,688 |
| $690 (+12%) โ target | +$4,438 | +$3,078 | +$1,419 | -$570 |
| $710 (+15%) | +$5,855 | +$4,533 | +$2,969 | +$1,398 |
| $741 (+20%) | +$8,195 | +$6,951 | +$5,564 | +$4,483 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.