Target Price Playground
AMAT
$617.11
๐ข
AMAT IV: 67.8% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 90.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $680 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $617.11 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $590 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $57.75 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $680 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$514 (0.8%) on $67,486 risked, vs +$6,289 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $61,711. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $680. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $680 by Aug 21
+$514
+0.8% on $67,486 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$8,486
Put floors you at $590
Break-even
$674.86
+9.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.71 / -54.41 / 98.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $494 (-20%) | -$6,158 | -$6,968 | -$7,879 | -$8,486 |
| $525 (-15%) | -$5,005 | -$5,974 | -$7,172 | -$8,486 |
| $555 (-10%) | -$3,614 | -$4,701 | -$6,115 | -$8,486 |
| $586 (-5%) | -$1,993 | -$3,150 | -$4,680 | -$8,486 |
| $605 (-2%) | -$916 | -$2,090 | -$3,639 | -$7,009 |
| $617 (0%) โ spot | -$157 | -$1,334 | -$2,875 | -$5,775 |
| $629 (+2%) | +$633 | -$540 | -$2,059 | -$4,541 |
| $648 (+5%) | +$1,875 | +$721 | -$741 | -$2,689 |
| $680 (+10%) โ target | +$4,170 | +$3,074 | +$1,763 | +$514 |
| $710 (+15%) | +$6,443 | +$5,426 | +$4,288 | +$3,482 |
| $741 (+20%) | +$8,934 | +$8,013 | +$7,065 | +$6,567 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.