Target Price Playground
AMD
$530.76
๐ข
AMD IV: 69.3% โ LOW
(-25.6% vs 30d avg of 93.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $530 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $63.07 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $490 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.62 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $465 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$2,055 (105.7%) on $1,945 risked, vs $-6,576 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $53,076. Options give 8.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $465 by Aug 21
+$2,055
+105.7% on $1,945 risked
Max Profit
+$2,055
If the stock โค $490 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,945
Net debit
Break-even
$510.55
-3.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.68 / -4.63 / 3.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $425 (-20%) | +$1,092 | +$1,225 | +$1,490 | +$2,055 |
| $451 (-15%) | +$835 | +$929 | +$1,141 | +$2,055 |
| $465 (-12%) โ target | +$695 | +$763 | +$928 | +$2,055 |
| $478 (-10%) | +$566 | +$608 | +$720 | +$2,055 |
| $504 (-5%) | +$297 | +$279 | +$265 | +$633 |
| $520 (-2%) | +$137 | +$84 | -$8 | -$959 |
| $531 (0%) โ spot | +$33 | -$44 | -$185 | -$1,945 |
| $541 (+2%) | -$69 | -$168 | -$356 | -$1,945 |
| $557 (+5%) | -$218 | -$347 | -$596 | -$1,945 |
| $584 (+10%) | -$451 | -$623 | -$948 | -$1,945 |
| $610 (+15%) | -$663 | -$867 | -$1,232 | -$1,945 |
| $637 (+20%) | -$854 | -$1,078 | -$1,451 | -$1,945 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.